In my mind there are two very distinct camps on this issue. The first camp is from the scientific community who in my opinion have yet to show a good argument for research outcome and publishing their results - my understanding is that by mutating the virus to spread ferret to ferret that it does nothing to help with the creation of a vaccine. The second camp are biothreat analysts like Dr. Michael Osterholm, CIDRAP, who cite concerns that include how a ferret's makeup is close to that of a human.
If you haven't heard about the Dutch and American research on H5N1 and Ferret to ferret transmission, see this article: Life Sciences at a Crossroads: Respiratory Transmissible H5N1 or Google Ferrets and H5N1.
My thoughts side on the side of the biothreat analyst. Here is what I know:
- H5N1 naturally occurs in nature
- There is not a single dual use argument that out weighs the risk of explaining in detail to anyone who wants access how to mutate the H5N1 virus and jump species
- H5N1 could be 60% or more lethal (by comparison the Spanish Influenza everyone talks about was around 2%)
- BSL (bio safety labs) IV while protected for containment have no 100% gurantee that the virus will not make the jump to human during these experiments nor does is there a gurantee the researchers and the lab are security tight - emphasis on security.
While I respect the scientific community, there is a need to keep some things unpublished. There is also a need not to do certain research given the risks. I believe that we are playing with fire and unfortunately the horse has left the barn on this. Even if the information was only partially released or not released at all, there is still the chance the information will get out. In fact, I can almost gurantee something of this magnitude will not stay in the dark for long given past history. For more details on why we should not publish these results see Biosecurity panel chief voices mixed reaction to WHO meeting.
In other news,the CDC reports that a new flu strain A(H3N2) has shown a potential for human-to-human transmission and could be the next Pandemic. According to the report, which was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the H3N2 strains "resemble viruses with pandemic potential." The CDC is currently working to find a viable vaccine since this season's flu vaccine does not work with this strain.
And what should be of real interest given the topic of this blog today is that this virus has shown to be highly transmissible from ferret to ferret, an animal used to explore the possibilities of human-to-human transmission of viruses.